获取途径

作者单位

Center for Climate Change and Health, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical University, Taian City, Shandong Province, PR China Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China

刊名

Science of the Total Environment

年份

2017

卷号

Vol.601-602

页码

1298-1305

ISSN

0048-9697

关键词

Bacillary dysentery Floods Poisson regression Projection Years Lived with Disability

摘要

Many researchers have been studying the influence of floods on intestinal infection in recent years. This study aimed to project the future disease burden of bacillary dysentery associated with floods in Guangxi, China. Relying on the longitudinal data, a generalized additive mixed model was applied to quantify the relationship between the monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery and floods with two severity levels from 2004 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Years Lived wi...更多

Many researchers have been studying the influence of floods on intestinal infection in recent years. This study aimed to project the future disease burden of bacillary dysentery associated with floods in Guangxi, China. Relying on the longitudinal data, a generalized additive mixed model was applied to quantify the relationship between the monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery and floods with two severity levels from 2004 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Years Lived with Disability was used as the measure of the burden of bacillary dysentery in the future of Guangxi, China. According to the generalized additive mixed model, the relative risks of moderate and severe floods on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery were 1.17 and 1.39 , respectively. The regression analysis also indicated that the flood duration was negatively associated with the morbidity of bacillary dysentery . Considering the effects of floods only, compared with the YLDs in 2010, increasing flood events may lead to a 4.0% increase in the YLDs for bacillary dysentery by 2020, 2100, 0.0% by 2050, and an 8.0% increase by 2030 in Guangxi, if other factors remain constant. Considering all potential changes include floods, temperature and population size, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 16.0% by 2020, 20.0% by 2030, 2050, and 0.0% by 2100, compared to that in 2010 under the moderate flood scenario; Under the severe flood scenario, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 16.0% by 2020, 20.0% by 2030, 2050, and 4.0% by 2100.收起

文献类型

期刊

浏览量

5